The analysis of an industry’s life cycle is useful for making projections about profit margins, earnings growth, trends in sales and profitability. To simplify things it is quite common to reduce the entire life cycle of an industry to 5 stages Such a 5-stage model is described by Reilly and Brown (2003). Abrief description of the different stages will follow next.

Pioneering development: A modest sales growth is accompanied by small or negative profit margins and profits. The firms face high R&D costs. Most recent examples are high-tech companies or internet-based companies with unproven business models. Most of the financing is obtained through venture capital or private equity.

Rapid accelerating growth: Demand for products and services grows and due to only few competitors, profit margins are high. Firms experience substantial backlogs and production capacity is being built up. At this stage successful companies will be able to access the capital markets for further financing.

Mature growth: An increasing number of competitors enter the market. The demand for the industry’s goods and services is satisfied, prices decline and profit margins begin to decline. At this stage financial discipline is important because future earnings might be lower due to competition. Companies with sustainable debt levels will benefit in the long run.

Stabilization and market maturity: The growth rate of the industry declines to the growth rate of the aggregate economy and profit growth will vary by industry due to different competitive structures. Competition will result in lower profit margins. In this stage industry trends will contribute to the development of aggregate credit quality.

Deceleration of growth and decline: Sales growth declines because of changes in demand and new substitutes. An increasing number of companies start to generate losses. The industry experiences a negative credit trend.

Finally, while the subjects of industry analysis and the identification of relative value between sectors are covered in more detail below, it should be noted that the sector allocation has a substantial influence on the risk profile of a corporate bond portfolio. Sectors differ not only with respect to the goods or services they produce, but also with respect to their sensitivity to the economic environment. Therefore, investors usually distinguish between cyclical and noncyclical sectors. In general, cyclical industries are those where the ability to generate revenues and cash flows is closely linked to the business cycle. Usually, this is due to the fact that the companies in those sectors produce goods or services for private consumption or that belong in the category of capital expenditures. Typical examples of cyclical sectors therefore are the automotive and the capital goods sector.