Although the consumer sector did surprisingly well, the spreads of cyclical sectors widened massively between the beginning of 2000 and October 2002. Apart from external shocks such as September 11, 2001, there are two economic explanations for this observation. First, the corporate sector increased its leverage dramatically between 1997 and 2001, for the benefit of shareholders and at the cost of bondholders. The high level of leverage made companies vulnerable to economic downturns. Second, the recession that finally occurred in the United States was not typical in the sense that it was not driven by a lack of private demand, but it was rather driven by overinvestment, overcapacities in many industries and as a consequence there was a decline of business investment. The capital goods sector was directly affected by this development and credit spreads widened substantially. The automotive sector, conversely, suffered rather from speculations that the consumer might break away one day. Additionally, the incentive programs weakened profitability in the already fragile automotive sector further and funding gaps in the pension plans materialized following the burst of the equity buble.

On the other hand, noncyclical sectors like banks and utilities performed reasonably well in 2001. The steepening yield curve helped banks to increase their interest margins and thus to offset the costs associated with the declining credit quality in the customer base. The utility sector again justified its safe haven status that is based on the utility companies’ strong ability to generate cash flows.

The breakdown of real GDP in its components highlights the importance of private consumption and investment for the state of the economy. In Q4 2003, personal consumption and investment accounted for 87 percent of US real GDP, that is, these components are major drivers of the economic cycle. Although the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) that is responsible for dating recessions employs a variety of indicators to determine the peak and trough of an economic cycle, recessions are usually characterized by declining private demand. Tthis was not true for the 2001 recession. The consumer held up very well, taking on even more debt and thus stretching his balance sheet to the limit.

Tax rebates and incentives like the zero percent financing in the automotive sector supported the high level of consumption additionally, so that the indebtedness of private households reached record highs while the savings rate plunged to extremely low levels by historical standards. This combination explains not only the limited downturn of retail sales during the 2001 recession, but also the sluggish recovery compared to former recessions.

Finally, while the subjects of industry analysis and the identification of relative value between sectors are covered in more detail below, it should be noted that the sector allocation has a substantial influence on the risk profile of a corporate bond portfolio. Sectors differ not only with respect to the goods or services they produce, but also with respect to their sensitivity to the economic environment. Therefore, investors usually distinguish between cyclical and noncyclical sectors. In general, cyclical industries are those where the ability to generate revenues and cash flows is closely linked to the business cycle. Usually, this is due to the fact that the companies in those sectors produce goods or services for private consumption or that belong in the category of capital expenditures. Typical examples of cyclical sectors therefore are the automotive and the capital goods sector.

Besides fundamental developments the risk appetite of investors is a driver of the spread differentials between various risk classes. Risk appetite in general describes the willingness of market participants to invest in risky assets as opposed to risk-free assets. Clearly, risk appetite is an unobservable factor but there are various indicators that are designed to extract a measure for risk appetite or risk aversion from market data. More details on this subject are provided later With respect to the performance of subordinated bonds versus senior bonds, there is an impact of risk appetite.

Spreads usually widen when risk appetite falls and tighten when risk appetite increases. From this chart there seems to be a lead–lag relationship between risk appetite and subsequent credit spread changes. If the leading character of risk appetite holds for the future it may provide valuable trading signals for subordinated financials.

Let’s say that you want to buy the example property we mentioned earlier. Remember, this property consists of two houses on one 5,197-square-foot lot, which were built in 1948. The mix has two one-bedroom houses that are in good condition. The owner wants $279,000 for this property. Is that a fair price? We’ll see. After checking with a few local brokers and appraisers, let’s further assume that you are able to locate three comparative sales (comps). We’ll call these comps Properties “X,” “Y,” and “Z.” Here’s what we know about those properties.

Property “X” also has two houses and looks like it may have been built by the same contractor as the property you want to buy. The difference is both units have two bedrooms each (the Lawndale duplex has one one-bedroom and one two-bedroom). Property “X” also has nicer landscaping. This property sold two months ago for $293,900.

Property “Y” is an attached duplex, was also built in 1948, and is the same size and condition as your property. The units have open parking instead of garages. This building sold a few months ago for $264,000.

Finally, Property “Z” is also just like the property you want except that it sold one year ago for $262,000. Because the sale occurred so long ago, it may be less relevant, albeit still important, to analyze, for there aren’t any other comps available.

What does it cost to run this property? That is  the next component to understand. Expenses include such things
as:

Property taxes
Insurance premiums
Utilities
Gardening costs
Management fees
Maintenance and repair costs
Vacancies, etc.

Note that you will not be including interest expense here for  the capitalization-of – income approach assumes you paid all cash  for your building (even though you didn’t).  Although getting an accurate analysis of expenses may be easier  said than done, it is still imperative that you do so. One owner  might not pay for professional management yet another may, and  one owner may have rents too low and another may be right on.

Whatever the case, finding out what the expenses actually are is  critical to determining if the property is a sound investment.  Often, appraisers are forced to estimate the expenses for a certain  property based on the type of property that is being appraised and the area where it is located. Obviously, a duplex with no amenities  has far less expenses than a full-security building with tennis  courts and extensive landscaping does. Similarly, the cost of heating  a building in Boston, for example, will be considerably more than  heating one in Arizona. Remember that these types of size and regional  differences must be accounted for when analyzing expenses.

The final item needed for this valuation method is the expected capitalization rate. The capitalization rate is determined by understanding how much of a return investors can expect to realize in a particular market. The rate will vary in different parts of the country, in different parts of a city, even in buildings within a few blocks of each other.

Additionally, residential, commercial, and industrial properties also have varying capitalization rates. Remember, because the capitalization rate measures the profitability of an investment, certain types of properties involve other risks and thus dissimilar profit possibilities.

Before all the hype about stocks, back in the Dark Ages of investing, novice investors put everything into savings accounts. After a few years of experience, they ventured into the bond market. Five years playing with government bonds led to another five years investing in corporate bonds. Having built up capital and emotional tools, these apprentice investors then bought utility stocks, blue chip stocks, or real estate. Another decade or so and they were ready for speculation in tech stocks, emerging market stocks, commodities, and anything else the markets could throw at them. At each stage of development, the investor learned the emotional twists and turns of investing along with the knowledge of companies and markets.

Today, investors start with tech stocks, possessing little knowledge of companies or markets and never building the emotional skills needed to handle the most challenging investments. Each stage of investment maturity triggers different emotions. Saving triggers different emotions than investing, which in turn triggers different emotions than speculating. Some of you have MBAs or CPAs and can quickly pick up company and market data. Others are therapists or trained emotionally to handle conflicts. Most readers are neither. This chapter will define common types of emotional traps you will encounter with investments. Chapters 4, 5, and 6 will show how savings, investments, and speculations trigger emotional reactions. Then, Chapter 7 shows how portfolio structure can twist your emotions. These five chapters will give you the emotional information equivalent to that of a 20-year, full-time investor. Step 2 will raise your level of self-knowledge so that you can determine what investments are appropriate for you.

It’s a question that comes up almost every time I sit down to help someone dig their way out of debt: should I wait until I’m out of debt to start saving toward retirement? Unfortunately, the answer doesn’t consist of a simple yes or no. Rather, the answer is probably a combination of “maybe” and “some.”

For the most part, we want to free up everything we can to get rid of our short-term debts before we dive headfirst into retirement planning. But there are four things you should be doing today, even if you are putting the majority of your free income toward paying down debt:

1. Take the 401(k) match. If your employer is willing to match your retirement plan contributions, I’d recommend contributing up to the point where they stop matching. Even if they only match you fifty cents for every dollar you contribute, that’s like getting a 50% interest rate on your savings in the first year.

2. Take the IRS match. Did you know Uncle Sam will also match you for saving money into a retirement plan or an IRA? The Retirement Savings Contribution Credit effectively gives you a bonus on your tax return in the form of a tax credit. This credit ranges anywhere from 10 to 50% of the amount contributed for unmarried wage earners who make under $26,000 ($52,000 for married filing jointly). Check out IRS Publication 590 for more details.

3. Buy your company’s stock. If your employer gives you an opportunity to buy shares of your company stock at a discount, this may be worth doing. Often, companies offer their employees a substantial discount on the current purchase price of their stock—sometimes as much as 15%. Additionally, the IRS may offer additional tax benefits in retirement to employees who invest a portion of their 401(k) or employer-sponsored plan assets in company stock. Of course, if you think your company’s stock is headed south, you’ll probably want to steer clear. Talk with your investment and tax advisor for more details.

4. Stay put at that good job. Do you have one of those increasingly rare jobs that promises to pay you a monthly pension when you retire? If you do, I’m jealous. Before you jump ship and go searching for greener pastures, find out how much longer you need to stay to lock in your future benefits. Another couple years at
the same desk may be a worthwhile trade-off for that monthly check at retirement.

So, for example, if you are 25 years old and want to accumulate $600,000 by age 65, you’d have to save about $175 per month (assuming 8% annual growth). Over your entire life of saving, this would translate into about $84,000 out of your pocket that grew to $600,000. Not too shabby.

But what if you wait until age 35 to start saving toward your $600,000? Then you’ll need to save about $410 per month, or more than double, to accumulate the same $600,000 at retirement. And even though you saved for retirement for 10 years less than the 25-year-old, you’ll end up dishing out about $147,000!

At age 45, your monthly savings number jumps to $1,000 per month that you’ll need to save for retirement,
or about $242,000 out of pocket. See the point? If you’re not saving toward retirement early, you will have to pay for it exponentially later.

If you are spending money instead of saving, whether it is going toward vacations or interest on your debts
and loans, there’s an opportunity cost. Getting your debts paid off as soon as possible means that you’ll be
able to put money toward these goals while they are still within reason.